At least 45 to 50% of the Republican base in the early primaries and caucuses does not want Donald Trump as their 2024 candidate or would be open to another candidate. Real Clear Politics polling average shows 44% of the Republican base is not in love with Trump.
Whoever is running against Trump is going to have to stop with the notion that he will just fall off the road somewhere. In 2016, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio assumed Trump’s support base would simply collapse at a certain point, and then they would just walk into the nomination. That didn’t happen; they ended up fighting each other, and John Kasich stayed in to make sure Trump was the nominee.
The person best positioned to take on Trump is Ron DeSantis. And now, he’s training his fire on Trump. He is making the argument that: (1) he has a proven track record in Florida; (2) he has not lost to President Biden and Trump has; (3) he won both presidential debates; and (4) he’s the only candidate who’s running double digits against Trump in the primaries.
Let the two of us battle it out, DeSantis is saying. If Trump wins, Trump wins. But maybe he won’t. Maybe he’ll have a tough time defending his record against the more conservative DeSantis. Maybe he’ll look easily distractible. Maybe his volatility will hurt him against the more staid Florida governor.
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So DeSantis has called for a one-on-one debate with Trump. He pointed out that Trump has been attacking him, then added, “You know, it’s one thing to do it behind a keyboard. Step up on stage and do it to my face. I’m ready for it. You used to say I was a great governor. Now all of a sudden you’re saying the opposite. Let’s have that discussion, and I’ll do it. We could do one-on-one. Let’s give the American people the choice that they deserve.”
Is Trump actually going to do that? Of course not. But if Trump is unable to debate Ron DeSantis — who is an excellent Republican governor from Florida, the second-place finisher in all the polls right now, and a genuine threat to him in the Iowa caucuses, where ground game matters (and DeSantis has done an enormous amount of groundwork) — that should raise some questions.
One thing is for certain, however: The field has to winnow for anyone to have a chance against Trump. Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott — none of them are going to be the nominee. In fact, none of them look like they’re even running for the nomination. Right now, only DeSantis and Nikki Haley are serious second-tier contenders.
A three-way race splits far less unevenly in Trump’s favor. Trump will still have an advantage in a three-person race, but it will be a lot easier for Republican voters to tell which of the other two candidates ought to be the choice to challenge Trump — if there is to be any challenge to Trump at all.
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