Nate Silver On ABC News: A Florida Victory Would Put Trump At 1 In 3 Chance For Re-Election

During Election Night coverage with ABC News, elections statistician Nate Silver remarked that President Donald Trump would nearly triple his chances of reelection should he win the state of Florida and its 29 electoral college votes. 

“Trump, if he wins Florida, is much more in the running. He’s about a 1 in 3 chance of winning overall,” Silver told ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos earlier in the evening, according to Mediaite. 

DecisionDeskHQ projected Trump as the winner in Florida shortly after 8:00pm EST. However, it should be noted that Silver wrote nearly an hour and a half after DecisionDeskHQ projected the race for Trump that “Florida is likely to go for Trump,” suggesting Silver could be waiting for more news organizations to call the state. 

Decision Desk HQ Projects Trump (R) Has Won The State Of Florida And Its 29 Electoral Votes

Race Called At 11-03 08:11 EST

All Results: https://t.co/6GfosqGUrH

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020

During his interview, Silver added that the small “silver lining” for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, should Trump win Florida, would be that Cuban-American voters in south Florida supporting Trump “might not translate to other parts of the country.”

“But you know, Florida would be the first step toward a Trump upset,” he continued.

If Florida goes to Trump, though, his chances of winning the Electoral College would go up to 33%.

If we wins Georgia, his chances would go to 38%. If he won North Carolina, the race would still be a toss-up.

The candidate who then won Pennsylvania would be the heavy favorite. https://t.co/JLQWdqg1Mp

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 4, 2020

Silver, who gained prominence after correctly forecasting 49 states in the 2008 election, previously told Stephanopoulos over the weekend that Democratic nominee Joe Biden “becomes an underdog” in the race if he ends up losing Pennsylvania. 

“I think it would come down to Pennsylvania,” replied Silver, when asked what he believed would be the “key factors” should he find himself writing about a Trump victory the morning after the election. “Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we’ve seen in Michigan or Wisconsin.”

“There’s lots of stuff going on, and maybe a lot of little things add up,” said Silver. “Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog.”