So, it’s down to the wire. According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, Donald Trump is up in national polling — by 0.1%. In Georgia, he’s leading by 2.3%; in North Carolina, by 1.5%; in Pennsylvania, by 0.3%; in Arizona, by 2.6%; in Nevada, by 1%. Meanwhile, according to that same average, Harris is leading in Michigan by 0.6% and in Wisconsin by 0.3%. Suffice it to say, every single one of these battleground states is well within the margin of error — meaning that a significant polling error in Trump’s favor turns the election into a blowout for him, and a significant polling error in Harris’ direction turns it into a blowout for her.
According to Atlas Intel, Trump is currently leading in all the swing states; according to New York Times/Siena, Trump is behind in Nevada, but ahead in Arizona, and all the other swing states are essentially dead even, with Harris up slightly in Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. The bottom line: Nobody knows anything. As Nate Cohn of the New York Times points out, “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”
.png)
.png)
