Welcome to this week’s Midterm Exam (part two) — complete with tidbits and stories from races around the country.
Extensive midterm coverage, and more detailed reports, can be found here.
Now, we’ll go over some governor and Senate races from Oregon, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Part one can be read here.
Michigan Polls All Over The Place
Individual polls can be all over the place, but that’s especially true if you live in Michigan.
While Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer consistently leads in every poll, the last two polls showed radically different outcomes. The latest Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll released Monday gave Whitmer an 17-point lead, but a Trafalgar poll from last week showed a much tighter race, with GOP candidate Tudor Dixon down just 6 points. Maybe polling in Michigan will show more consistent results after the two candidates debate at least twice in the last month of the campaign, but in the end, elections are decided by voters on election day, not public polling firms in September and October.
Ideally, you find a polling average wherever possible to make election predictions.
Republican Oregon Gubernatorial Candidate Continues To Shine
GOP Oregon gubernatorial Candidate Christine Drazan has taken the lead in several recent polls against her Democratic and unaffiliated opponents.
Emerson College Polling has her up two points ahead of Tina Kotek, the Democratic candidate. FiveThirtyEight also recently reported the Nelson Research poll had Drazan winning 33.4%, with Kotek at 31.5%.
In another debate on Tuesday night, the three candidates sparred over major topics like guns, abortion, homelessness, crime, and education, according to KATU.
“Christine Drazan continues to distinguish herself on the debate stage as the only candidate ready to deliver real change for Oregonian families on Day One as Governor,” Drazan Campaign Manager Trey Rosser said in a campaign statement after the debate. “Oregon voters know that Christine is ready to tackle rising crime and homelessness in Portland while working to make our state more affordable for all who call it home. She was the clear winner of this debate, as she was with the previous two. Christine has the momentum in this race and Oregonians are rallying behind her agenda to deliver a new direction for our state.”
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast has the Oregon governor race as a toss-up.
North Carolina Senate Race Still A Close One
A new poll shows Republican Representative Ted Budd (NC) up by one point against Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley in the North Carolina Senate race. Budd was at 43% and Beasley was at 42%, and 13% of likely voters said they haven’t decided yet, according to the SurveyUSA-WRAL poll. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has Budd up by 0.7%
Big-Name Republicans Hit The Campaign Trail For Colorado GOP Senate Candidate
Former President George W. Bush will take part in a fundraiser for Republican Colorado Senate candidate Joe O’Dea in a few weeks. Senator Tim Scott (R-NC) will also join O’Dea to campaign this week, and Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) is anticipated to be at the fundraiser alongside President Bush.
The Cook Political Report has the Colorado Senate race in the Lean Democrat category.
Dr. Oz Rising, Mastriano Floundering
The electoral landscape in Pennsylvania appears to be rapidly shifting in favor of Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz. According to a poll from Emerson College and The Hill, the celebrity cardiologist boasts 43% support from the voting population while Pennsylvania Lt. Governor and Democratic Senate John Fetterman boasts 45% — a difference within the survey’s margin of error, placing Oz in a statistical tie after months of lagging his rival.
Surprisingly, the poll showed that 46.2% of the Keystone State’s Hispanic population backs Oz, while only 32.1% back Fetterman — an extraordinarily unexpected outcome given that President Joe Biden won 65% of the Hispanic vote in the Keystone State two years ago, according to exit polls from NBC News.
However, per the latest FiveThirtyEight polling average, Oz is still lagging by six points.
Republican State Senator Doug Mastriano, however, still appears to be trailing Attorney General Josh Shapiro in the race for the governor’s mansion.