There’s a serious major crisis on the foreign policy front, and it’s going to get worse if Joe Biden is trailing in the polls come the summer.
China is looking at a low reproduction rate of close to one birth per woman, and the government is blowing up empty hotel buildings. The Chinese government has sunk all their money. They have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars, and they plowed money into building empty skyscrapers, ghost cities in the middle of nowhere. And then they “convinced” people in China to take their life savings and put them in these empty apartments. And the empty apartments are worth zero dollars.
China built them; now they’re blowing them up to create artificial scarcity. China’s economy is not in good shape.
China has serious systemic problems. One of those big systemic problems is that the less access they have to the modern military technology available in Taiwan, for example, the less competitive they are with the United States. So they are falling further behind.
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But — the one thing they have going for them is a perception of Biden’s weakness. If we get to June, July, and August, and Biden is seriously trailing in the polls, we could see China decide their window is closing, knowing that if they don’t go after Taiwan they would be in trouble because a GOP president would not treat the situation the same way as Biden would.
Biden has been extremely conciliatory towards Xi Jinping, so China may think to themselves, “We better do this now before Joe Biden is out of office.”
But if they invade Taiwan, the American election will turn into a blowout win for the GOP. If we’re in the middle of a war with China, or at least a standoff over a blockade of Taiwan, things would get even more dicey for Biden’s reelection efforts.
The voters of Taiwan have made it clear to China that they have no intention of appeasing them. Good for them. NBC News reported:
Voters in Taiwan elected Vice President Lai Ching-te as their next president on Saturday, defying warnings from Beijing not to support a candidate it has called a separatist and a ‘troublemaker.’ The election, which China has described as ‘a choice between war and peace,’ could test recent efforts by Beijing and Washington to repair relations that in recent years have fallen to their lowest point in decades. …
Lai’s victory extends the eight-year rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is considered the least friendly party to Beijing. Relations between Taiwan and China have deteriorated under President Tsai Ing-wen, who was first elected in 2016 and is limited to two terms. Voters in Taiwan, especially younger ones, were concerned not just with China policy but with economic issues like unemployment, housing costs and income inequality. Lai won with 40% of the vote, compared with 33% for Hou Yu-ih of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang, and 26% for Ko Wen-je, founder of the populist Taiwan People’s Party. Hou and Ko, who both favor closer ties with Beijing, had argued that the DPP’s policies toward China were too confrontational.
So if you’re China, you’re looking at a more confrontational Taiwan.
And if you’re China and you are looking at a conciliatory Biden administration that may be losing to Donald Trump, that may be a time you start thinking very seriously about accelerating whatever military plans you have for Taiwan.