President Trump is not on the ballot in 2026, and thus his coattails will really not apply to House Republicans or Senate Republicans.
That means an uphill battle for Republicans. The incumbent party in off-year elections tends not to do particularly well. Right now, Republicans are running the barest majority humanly possible in the House of Representatives because of the untimely death of California Republican Representative Doug LaMalfa. His death shrinks the House GOP majority to 218 to 213.


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