If the election were held today, Joe Biden would most likely win. Democrats could probably capture the Senate. The problem for Democrats is that the election is not today and the Republicans have had a good convention.
After the Democrats’ convention, President Donald Trump went up five points with independent voters in a CBS News poll. I am hard-pressed to find previous conventions where one candidate got a bump from the other candidate’s convention. Trump has drawn close to Biden in swing state polls. Polling averages in several key states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, have Trump closer to Biden right now than Trump was against Clinton.
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