It’s been a terrific month for democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and the latest polling out of the third primary state, Nevada, indicates that his momentum will continue at least through South Carolina (Feb. 29). The story for two former frontrunners — former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) — however, couldn’t be more different: both are rapidly seeing their chances of securing the nomination evaporate, while billionaire Mike Bloomberg’s self-financed campaign is rapidly looking like Sanders’ biggest threat. Here’s the latest national and key state polling data.
In national polls, Sanders has now taken a sizable lead over the field after Biden’s stunningly bad performance in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Real Clear Politics‘ current average of the national polls gives Sanders a double-digit lead, with Biden now holding only a narrow edge over the surging relative moderate Bloomberg.
Despite strong performances in the first two primary contests, both former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar continue to be stuck at disappointing levels of national support (10 percent or below in most polls). Below are RCP’s latest averages of the national polls:
- Sanders 28.6 (+11)
- Biden 17.6
- Bloomberg 15.9
- Warren 12.3
- Buttigieg 10.3
- Klobuchar 6.6
- Steyer 2.3
- Gabbard 1.7
A new Washington Post-ABC poll gives Sanders an even more impressive lead, his support improving by nine points since January, his close-second in Iowa and first place finish in New Hampshire clearly having a significant impact on Democrats’ views of his national viability. The opposite is true of Biden.
According to the Post’s survey, Sanders now has 32 percent of the Democratic vote, while Biden, who enjoyed the same percentage of the vote back in January, has plummeted to just 16 percent support. Biden, the Post writes, “faces significant hurdles as he attempts to mount a comeback, with his hopes pinned on success in Nevada and especially South Carolina, where he had long been the favorite of African American voters who make up a hefty majority of the Democratic electorate there.”
Bloomberg, despite not participating in the first two primary contests, is on the verge of overtaking Biden, earning 14 percent of Democratic support, up six points since January. The combination of the collapse of relative centrist Biden and Bloomberg’s expensive ad blitz appears to be fueling the former Republican mayor’s rise.
Warren, meanwhile, is mired in the low teens (12 percent in the Post’s poll), where she’s been for a few months. Buttigieg is similarly stuck at disappointingly low support (8 percent) despite his surprise primary performances in the early states.
Nevada
Heading into the Nevada caucuses this Saturday (Feb. 22), Sanders remains the prohibitive favorite. Data for Progress‘s latest survey gives Sanders a 19-point lead over the field (Sanders 35, Warren 16, Buttigieg 15, Biden 14, Steyer 10, Klobuchar 9, Gabbard 2), while Las Vegas Review-Journal gives Sanders a 7-point advantage (Sanders 25, Biden 18, Warren 13, Steyer 11, Buttigieg 10, Klobuchar 10). RCP currently gives the following averages from the most recent Nevada polls:
- Sanders 30
- Biden 16
- Warren 14.5
- Buttigieg 12.5
- Steyer 10.5
- Klobuchar 9. 5
South Carolina
Biden is still clinging to his lead in South Carolina, but the situation is getting precarious for the former dominant frontrunner. Even without Bloomberg in the mix in key polls, Biden’s lead is now merely 4 points by average, Sanders closing the gap over the last few weeks. Below is the averages of the polls as calculated by RCP:
- Biden 25.5
- Sanders 21.5
- Steyer 17
- Buttigieg 11.5
- Warren 8
- Klobuchar 7.5
- Gabbard 1
Change Research‘s latest polling data from the state gives an even more troubling picture for Biden. According to the survey, conducted late last week, Biden and Sanders are tied at 23 percent support, while Steyer is just 3 points behind.