Appearing on Fox News Tuesday, syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer spoke with anchor Bill Hemmer about what happens after the election. Among other things, here are his four most critical observations and predictions:
1. If Trump Wins, the GOP Becomes a Populist Experiment
…[Trump] will irreversibly reshape the Party. This was the Party of Reagan, and the Bush years were sort of an echo of the Reagan years. Reagan defined the contours of the Party. Trump will do that–and it’ll be change. Particularly the most obvious issues are going to be immigration and trade.
This will be a new Party, a populist Party. The country will not have a conservative Party in the sense of a Reaganite Party…We will have a long experiment in populism led by the GOP–the new GOP.
2. If Trump Loses, and Leaves, His Movement Will “Wither”
He will be the one to determine which way the future of the Party goes…he can walk away, and the movement will likely wither until some younger, newer leader comes along.
3. Trump Won’t Walk Away; He May Become “Kingmaker”
That was an interesting statement you just showed, where he said that if he loses, he will have wasted a lot of time and energy and money–which is, I think, his way of saying that it would be a total waste if he walks away. I don’t think he’s a Michael Dukakis; I don’t think he’s a Bob Dole; this is not a guy who’s gonna lose and–I think–walk away. He feels he’s created something. I think he’s right about that. He created this populist movement, very unusual in U.S. history. It happens, but usually, you know, a generation or two separated from each other…
I think he stays in the game. He becomes the kingmaker. If he loses by a respectable margin, say less than Romney did, or within that range, I think he becomes the de facto leader of the Party.
4. The War Has Only Just Begun
…I think Paul Ryan represents the older Reaganite consensus, and I think, look, the civil war will begin on Wednesday, will begin tomorrow morning…I’ll give you one big example. Paul Ryan has been obsessed–I think correctly–but obsessed with entitlements and deficits. He’s got plans. Remember he got the GOP House to vote almost unanimously on a plan that would alter Medicare, that everybody had assumed was the third rail, would cost them control of the House. It didn’t.
But, Trump ran on not touching entitlements. This is a more populist stand. Now, I think that is one example of how the conservative, traditional, and now Paul Ryan, agenda, is in total conflict with what would be a Trump agenda. And I think the first test of who gets the upper hand is gonna be the Speakership.
Whoever wins the election, it seems likely that Krauthammer’s predictions will come true. Donald Trump, for better or worse (worse), has reshaped, and will continue to reshape the Republican Party. Neither he nor his populist movement are going anywhere–at least for a while.