California Redistricting Could Aid GOP’s Chances Of Retaking House In 2022
WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 22: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks during his weekly news conference at the U.S. Capitol on April 22, 2021 in Washington, DC. On Thursday, the House is set to vote on H.R. 51, the Washington, D.C. Admission Act. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Redistricting in California could deliver several crucial House seats to the GOP in 2022 as the state’s congressional districts are redrawn following the 2020 census.

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission will redraw some congressional district boundaries this year according to updated census numbers. The new congressional map is expected to cut into California’s 45th district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, and bolster numbers in one or several of the surrounding districts in and around Orange County.

Where the cuts will come out of Porter’s overpopulated county, and into which new district those voters will be placed, is difficult to predict. In some scenarios, those changes could benefit GOP challengers hoping to flip Democratic seats. Currently, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is just a few seats shy of control in the 218-212 Democratic-controlled House.

“The southern portion of Porter’s 45th district also could go to Democratic Rep. Mike Levin’s narrowly blue 49th District, which includes southern Orange County and northern San Diego County. If that happens, it would favor Republicans Brian Maryott, a former San Juan Capistrano council member who is challenging Levin for a third time in 2022, or Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez, who is rumored to be considering a CA-49 run,” The Orange County Register reports.

Porter could also lose constituents to the 46th District currently represented by Democratic Rep. Lou Correa. The area that the Porter is likely to lose from, Tustin, would aid Correa but cut into Porter’s Democratic base, giving the GOP an opportunity to unseat her in 2022, according to the Register.

Flipping the House red in 2022 would be a significant victory for the GOP and effectively stifle the Democrats and President Joe Biden’s progressive agenda. The Democrats currently control the House, Senate, and White House, leaving Republicans with only the Senate filibuster, which requires 60 votes to overcome, to stop Democratic legislation.

A number of high-profile Democrats have reversed their stance on the filibuster since Biden’s election. A dozen Democratic lawmakers who defended the filibuster in a letter to then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have argued in favor of abolishing the filibuster now that the White House is in Democratic hands.

McConnell, now minority leader, threatened Democrats in March if they voted to kill the filibuster.

“I want our colleagues to imagine a world where every single task, every one of them, requires a physical quorum — which by the way, the vice president does not count in determining a quorum,” McConnell said in a speech on the Senate floor. “Everything that Democratic Senates did to Presidents Bush and Trump … everything the Republican Senate did to President Obama … would be child’s play compared to the disaster that Democrats would create for their own priorities if they break the Senate.”

“As soon as Republicans wound up back in the saddle, we wouldn’t just erase every liberal change that hurt the country,” McConnell said. “We’d strengthen America with all kinds of conservative policies with zero — zero — input from the other side.”

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