A new poll shows President Trump is surging in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, slicing into the lead of former Vice President Joe Biden, who is currently leading the Democratic field by a large margin. Additionally, the poll shows the two men in a statistical dead heat in Michigan.
The Firehouse-Optimus poll, conducted from June 11-13, shows Trump with a tremendous surge in Pennsylvania; Biden had an eight-point lead in March that has narrowed to a scant one-point lead. The Trump “base” in Pennsylvania has a huge lead over the Democratic “base.” Trump’s stands at 42%, dwarfing the Democrats', which is at 24%. The poll adds, “This is a recurring trend across states — those who say they will vote for Trump are very consistent across ballot tests, while many Democratic-leaning voters fluctuate between supporting the Democrat, a generic third-party candidate, or not being sure.”
Since March, Biden’s lead over Trump in Wisconsin has shrunk from 12 percentage points to six. The Trump “base” in Wisconsin, according to the poll, rests at 37%; the Democratic “base” stands at 32%. Trump’s approval rating has risen from 41% to 44% since March.
In Michigan, where the Trump “base” is 39% and the Democratic base rests at 32%, Trump and Biden were tied in March; Biden now holds a slim three-point lead, leaving them in a statistical dead heat.
The poll also found that a majority of respondents in all three states opposed Congress launching an impeachment inquiry against President Trump; 57% in Wisconsin, 56% in Pennsylvania, and 53% in Michigan opposed such a move. The poll added, “Democrats have become disillusioned with following that path.”
As The Guardian reported, Trump winning Pennsylvania may depend on him winning Northampton county, which voted for Barack Obama twice but then voted for Trump in 2016. Northampton county Republican party chairwoman Lee Snover acknowledged, “I have challenges. I have more to gain. I definitely have challenges. I’ve got to hold what I have, and I actually have to get new people. And I have to get more Democrats. But here’s the thing: I’m banking on the Democrats continuing to be foolish and push nonsense.”
Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, told The Guardian, “The popular wisdom is that Trump squeezed about just as much as he could out of the state last time … But if he can keep those folks aboard, and maybe bring in a few more folks on the margin, who maybe didn’t vote at all in 2016, then he can make further gains.”
Vis-a-vis Michigan, Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, noting that Trump won the state by a slim 10,704 votes in 2016, the first GOP candidate to win the state since 1988, said winning the state could be more difficult in 2020, saying, “Michigan is going to be competitive, it’s going to be harder. You did same-day registration and you have a Democrat governor. It’s going to be a more difficult state, but we’re up for the challenge and I think we’re going to win Michigan.”
MLive reported, “Several counties Trump won went to Democratic candidates in last year’s midterm elections, setting up Michigan to be a competitive battleground in 2020.”