Bad news for Senate Democrats, who need to hold onto all 10 of the seats they’re defending and pick up an additional two more in order to retake the upper chamber.
A new poll from Axios/SurveyMonkey of battleground states shows that it would be “nearly impossible for Democrats to take back the Senate.” The poll of 12,677 registered voters found that even under the rosiest of circumstances, Democrats might end up losing an additional seat to Republicans.
This latest poll found three Democrats running behind their Republican challengers, while just two Republicans are in danger of losing their seats. Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota both voted for Trump’s first Supreme Court Justice pick, Neil Gorsuch, but are still in danger of losing their seats in their respective Red States. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is also running behind Gov. Rick Scott.
Democrats do have some good news out of Nevada, where Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen leads Sen. Dean Heller by three points. And in Arizona's open contest, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema leads each of the Republicans vying for office.
Alexi McCammond writes at Axios that if these polls hold to November, “the stakes are even higher for [Democrats] to win the House if they're going to have any kind of congressional check on President Trump.”
Obviously these polls could still change, and registered voters are not as reliable as likely voters.
Another interesting finding in the poll is that while Democrats are far more enthusiastic about voting in November, there’s little difference between the parties as far as intent to vote in battleground states. More Democrats than Republicans said they intend to vote in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. More Republicans said they intend to vote in Florida, North Dakota, Ohio, Nevada, and Tennessee. An equal number from each party said they intend to vote in Montana and Arizona.
This could certainly change the landscape for Democrats.
The poll was conducted from June 11 to July 2, which would suggest that Democrat scare tactics surrounding gun control, tax cuts, net neutrality and Trump’s Supreme Court decisions are not having the intended effect. Democrats are already claiming that people will literally die because of some decisions made by Trump, so they can’t get much more hysterical. Dialing it down might be a better option.