Celebrations today mark the 41st anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran. On this day in 1979, the shah&#8217;s monarchial rule was abruptly quashed, as fundamentalist Shiite clerics seized power under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
While President Hassan Rouhani will boast about the regime’s perceived successes, military might, and dominance in his annual anniversary speech today in Tehran, the reality of the Islamic Republic’s 40th year is grim.
Each year around the anniversary, Iranian officials typically unveil technological advancements in their armed forces, nuclear, and space arsenals. On Saturday, Ayatollah Khamenei <a href="https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1226081823610081280" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1226081823610081280&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581529523479000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF92tKqfv5E6W9UUgkO_sTep8BfUQ">claimed</a> Iran’s air force capabilities, once weak under the Pahlavi dynasty, were thriving under the Islamist mullocracy. Over the weekend, Iran tried and failed to put a satellite into orbit. This failure came after two failed launches last year of the Doosti and Payam satellites and a botched rocket explosion over the summer.
Iran’s nuclear program has faced similar deterioration this year. The 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, the U.S., the U.K., China, Russia, Germany, and France is close to collapse. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States first from the flawed deal in May 2018, insisting any new deal must curb Iran’s ballistic missile program as well as hinder uranium enrichment. Iranian leadership unsurprisingly refused, leading to economic disaster in the country. Last month, Iran declared it will no longer fulfill its uranium enrichment commitment, compelling Germany, France, and Britain to prompt the deal’s dispute resolution mechanism. If international sanctions are indeed reinstated, the worsening economic crisis in Iran will become catastrophic.
Iran also suffered blows to its military and proxy power this past year. On January 3, a U.S. airstrike outside Baghdad, Iraq, killed Iran’s top military commander, Qassem Soleimani. Leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps&#8217; Quds Force, Soleimani was a critical player in Iran’s terror regime. President Trump ordered his killing following months of attacks on American troops by Iran proxies in Iraq. In response to Soleimani’s death, Khamenei <a href="https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1212998634264027136" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1212998634264027136&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581529523479000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYdHWRB7U2ca3aOkJNu_LNA5I4nA">assured</a> his Twitter followers that “jihad of resistance will continue with more motivation” as Iran <a href="https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1212991721954578432" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1212991721954578432&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581529523479000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGL2Y7VINtjMcTIyiU5mnXfnKfU9A">must</a> “congratulate Soleimani’s pure soul and condole the Iranian nation on this great martyrdom.”
Hezbollah, Iran’s most successful export, faced protest long before Soleimani’s killing in January. Since October, fed-up demonstrators have taken to the streets of Lebanon and Iraq to voice their grievances against Iran’s infiltration in and influence upon both governments. According to the U.N. special envoy to Iraq, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/21/world/middleeast/Iraq-protests-Iran.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/21/world/middleeast/Iraq-protests-Iran.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581529523479000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGP5zOmnYYipy_TNN3CpWeOpTVQpQ">over</a> 500 demonstrators have been killed and 19,000 wounded — the majority at the hands of Iranian-backed militias. As the Iranian regime continues to dismiss these protests as inauthentic and foreign-led, their weakening grasp on the Middle East accelerates.
Despite the propaganda Iran’s regime will put forth on today’s anniversary, the world has witnessed its monumental failures. Blows to Tehran’s nuclear arsenal, economic durability, technological development, proxy strength, and military power prove Iran is indeed losing its grip on the Middle East.
 
Maya Carlin is an M.A. candidate in Counter-Terrorism and Homeland Security at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government in Israel. She is also an Analyst at the Center for Security Policy, located in Washington D.C.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei meets students in Tehran

CARLIN: 40 Years Of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Riddled With Failures

Foreign Policy

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Middle East

Nuclear Weapons

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Once the political home for many British Jews, the Labour Party now faces a systemic anti-Semitism crisis. Leader Jeremy Corbyn fundamentally altered the Labour Party in 2015. His rise to leadership was accompanied by an affinity for Britain’s radical leftists and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/europe/karl-marx-admirer-jeremy-corbyn-voted-britains-labour-party-leader-n426316" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/europe/karl-marx-admirer-jeremy-corbyn-voted-britains-labour-party-leader-n426316&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGaizO84EQWp5T2ku3LKMKwWT24Wg">Marx supporters,</a> including fervent anti-Zionists and pro-Palestinian sympathizers.
However, Corbyn and other Labour members have been accused of much more than merely criticizing the right-leaning government of Israel. Allegations range from Corbyn’s <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/jeremy-corbyn-not-a-man-of-the-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/jeremy-corbyn-not-a-man-of-the-people/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGVVTDKf-PjAxZA7JrJMRWjqQ292w">ties</a> to Deir Yassin Remembered, an anti-Israel organization led by a Holocaust denier, to Corbyn’s hosting a 2010 panel wherein Israelis were compared to Nazis. At National Review last month, David Harsanyi <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/jeremy-corbyn-reminds-us-why-israel-exists/">wrote</a> that a 2018 review of online posts by Labour Party Parliament members found “examples of Holocaust denial, crude stereotypes of Jewish bankers, conspiracy theories blaming 9/11 on Israel, and even one individual who appeared to believe that Hitler had been misunderstood.”
Equally as concerning is Corbyn’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, terrorist groups that specifically call for the destruction of Israel. In a 2009 speech in London, Corbyn notably <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/03/jeremy-corbyn-has-a-soft-spot-for-extremists-ira-hamas-hezbollah-britain-labour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/03/jeremy-corbyn-has-a-soft-spot-for-extremists-ira-hamas-hezbollah-britain-labour/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG4pvTcb1-ldp6my3-NMeCjbWRjEA">described</a> these groups as his “friends.” His ultimate apology for that comment was overshadowed by his voluntary attendance at a 2012 Qatar conference that featured Palestinian militants previously imprisoned by Israel for perpetuating terror attacks against civilians. Corbyn described the terrorists’ comments as “fascinating and electrifying.”
In 2011, Corbyn <a href="https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-blamed-zionist-lobby-for-blood-libel-cleric-raed-salah-s-expulsion-from-the-uk-1.482455" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-blamed-zionist-lobby-for-blood-libel-cleric-raed-salah-s-expulsion-from-the-uk-1.482455&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGFc43jUXBUY-SCm9DJ4RtR5YfS0A">famously blamed</a> the “Zionist lobby” for procuring the deportation of the Islamist cleric notorious for promoting the infamous blood libel conspiracy, Raed Salah. The blood libel helped fuel the Nazis&#8217; genocidal, anti-Jewish crusades during the Holocaust. Salah was convicted in Israel for inciting violence and racism with statements like “whoever wants a more thorough explanation, let him ask what used to happen to some children in Europe, whose blood was mixed in with the dough of the (Jewish) holy bread.” Corbyn defended Salah, stating that it was “time that Western governments stood up to the Zionist lobby which seems to conflate criticism of Israel with anti-Semitism.”
Last month, Ephraim Mirvis, the chief rabbi of the United Hebrew Congregations of the Commonwealth, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/26/world/europe/chief-rabbi-labour-jeremy-corbyn.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/26/world/europe/chief-rabbi-labour-jeremy-corbyn.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGOs6QlT-yBhArnrZZJNHDO5wSyxQ">made</a> an unprecedented intervention in the United Kingdom’s political arena. He spelled out the anti-Jewish racism that has fully enveloped the Corbyn-led Labour Party.
On Sunday, the Simon Wiesenthal Center <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-group-names-uks-corbyn-top-anti-semite-of-2019/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-group-names-uks-corbyn-top-anti-semite-of-2019/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGxwtPIuXAH-W3GKa4dJyKh6TGhIw">named</a> Corbyn as its top anti-Semite of 2019. Rabbi Marvin Hier, head of the Center, warned that if Corbyn wins, he would “make Britain a pariah on the world stage,” adding that “to have a person seeking the highest office who ignored anti-Semitism for years, who did everything in his power to encourage it, is shocking.”
Last year, Corbyn’s Labour Party <a href="https://www.thejc.com/comment/analysis/what-is-the-ihra-definition-of-antisemitism-and-why-has-labour-outraged-jews-by-rejecting-it-1.467511" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thejc.com/comment/analysis/what-is-the-ihra-definition-of-antisemitism-and-why-has-labour-outraged-jews-by-rejecting-it-1.467511&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEbSNNJ6EqoQE3lWMffqoTo2og3-w">refused</a> to accept the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance&#8217;s (IHRA) internationally endorsed definition of anti-Semitism. Instead, the Party constructed a revised version, omitting the description of the “dual loyalties” trope as anti-Semitic. The amended version also intentionally left out the notion that comparing Israeli policy to that of the Nazis is inherently anti-Semitic.
Public outrage has recently forced Corbyn to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/03/corbyn-apologises-for-antisemitism-in-labour-party" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/03/corbyn-apologises-for-antisemitism-in-labour-party&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHrPjuEO81z5uVsqpCxW9_TCvDPag">apologize</a> to the United Kingdom’s Jewish community. Corbyn stated he was “sorry for everything that has happened,” referring to the heightening tensions between the Labour Party and British Jews. The apology did not include a pledge to recognize the IHRA’s definition of anti-Semitism, however.
David <a>Harsanyi perfectly </a><a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/jeremy-corbyn-reminds-us-why-israel-exists/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/jeremy-corbyn-reminds-us-why-israel-exists/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576075895003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG4kzCYzxi-tOfwcZElk4tUHnC8JQ">summarized</a> the dire threat Jeremy Corbyn poses to Britain when he wrote that “Corbyn hasn’t merely &#8216;tolerated&#8217; anti-Semitic attitudes. He has actively transformed Labour into a safe haven for Jew hatred.” Corbyn’s watered-down apology cannot overturn the years of blatant and dangerous anti-Semitic rhetoric that has fueled the Labour Party under his leadership. Britain’s Jewish community must duly consider the chief rabbi’s unprecedented warnings and take a stand against Corbyn’s possible election.
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Maya Carlin is an M.A. candidate in counter-terrorism and homeland security at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government in Israel. She is also associate producer and analyst at the Center for Security Policy, located in Washington D.C.

Jeremy Corbyn Campaigns On North Coast Of Wales

CARLIN: Jeremy Corbyn Could Pose An Existential Threat To British Jews

Anti-Semitism

Great Britain

Israel

Jeremy Corbyn

Judaism

Palestinians

United Kingdom

Over the past few weeks, frustrated and fed-up demonstrators have taken to the streets of Lebanon and Iraq to voice grievances against their respective governments. The perception of Iranian infiltration and influence certainly continue to impact this political shake-up in both countries.
These protests have toppled two governments in just three days. Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s prime minister, announced his resignation last week. Iraq’s President, Barham Sailh, stated that prime minister Abdul Mahdi had also agreed to resign from office once a successor is decided upon.
In both Iraq and Lebanon, political factions are divided by religions and sects. These government systems are designed to limit sectarian conflict by ensuring a share of power to different communities. However, in both regions, prominent Shia parties are conjoined with Iran. Since protesters are demanding an end to their governments’ power-sharing system, Tehran is in trouble.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/11/04/iraq-lebanons-protesters-may-achieve-what-trumps-maximum-pressure-could-not/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/11/04/iraq-lebanons-protesters-may-achieve-what-trumps-maximum-pressure-could-not/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573659006406000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH9507ho6UnPJsWU4Gv7Qe-ocbJlg">announced</a> via Twitter on Thursday that “the [protesters] have justifiable demands, but they should know their demands can only be fulfilled within the legal structure and framework of their country. When the legal structure is disrupted in a country, no action can be carried out.”
This statement, riddled with irony, completely discounts the revolution which birthed the government Khamenei currently leads. The ayatollah also verified how deeply entrenched Hezbollah has become in Lebanon’s political fabric.
Hezbollah is certainly the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most successful export. For over two decades, Tehran has played the role of puppetmaster in Beirut, attempting to counter the influence of its enemies: The U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah’s critical influence in the region was demonstrated both during the 2006 war with Israel and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s (IRGC) intervention in the Syrian conflict.
Although Hezbollah’s military wing, the IRGC, was rightfully designated as a terror organization in April by President Trump, the organization’s military and political wings work in tandem to export the regime’s disturbing agenda. In 2017, the U.S. State Department <a href="https://www.idf.il/en/minisites/hezbollah/hezbollah/hezbollah-a-recognized-terrorist-organization/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.idf.il/en/minisites/hezbollah/hezbollah/hezbollah-a-recognized-terrorist-organization/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573659006406000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGWt-R1FsqMA7l37ceRCAYaIBtJ2w">designated</a> over 250 operatives and 150 companies with Hezbollah ties. Last year, the details of Project Cassandra <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/obama-hezbollah-drug-trafficking-investigation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/obama-hezbollah-drug-trafficking-investigation/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573659006406000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEhFjIOWb4twZvOTRcDKDBzkixi9w">exposed</a> the sophistication and breadth of Hezbollah’s billion-dollar criminal enterprise.
Since Tehran heavily invests in Hezbollah’s role globally, these protests do not bode well for the regime.  Iranian leadership clearly grasps the magnitude of these demonstrations, since its officials have attempted to paint them as manifestations of foreign meddling. Supreme Leader Khamenei has accused “U.S. and Western intelligence services, with the financial backing of evil countries,” of orchestrating these protests.
In Iraq, anti-Iran sentiment has monopolized the demonstrations. Last week in Baghdad, protesters were pictured torching an Iranian flag. Protestors on Sunday <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/world/middleeast/iraq-protests-iran.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/world/middleeast/iraq-protests-iran.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573659006406000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFyzwXtfOkhPZHY3VWwKlswwqEo3A">threw</a> gasoline bombs at the Iranian consulate in Karbala. The former head of the Iraqi National Archives <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/world/middleeast/iraq-protests-iran.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/world/middleeast/iraq-protests-iran.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573659006406000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFyzwXtfOkhPZHY3VWwKlswwqEo3A">explained</a> that “the revolution is not anti-American; it is anti-Iran, it is anti-religion, [and] anti-political religion, not religion as such.” Pro-Iranian paramilitary forces have violently intervened in recent demonstrations. Since October 1st, the Iraqi High Commission for Human Rights <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-protests-police-shoot-baghdad-green-zone-death-toll-a9197476.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-protests-police-shoot-baghdad-green-zone-death-toll-a9197476.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573659006406000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEkI-WP8Umw4Hp79ckXqn2VApOcww">reports</a> that 301 protesters have been killed, and thousands more injured.
As Tehran continues to dismiss these protests as inauthentic and foreign-led, demonstrators will only gain more momentum. While Iran grapples with the economic consequences of President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign, it may not be able to ultimately survive the onslaught of these dual protests.
 
Maya Carlin is an M.A. candidate in Counter-Terrorism and Homeland Security at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government in Israel. She is also the Associate Producer at the Center for Security Policy, located in Washington D.C.

Middle East map

CARLIN: Is Iran Losing The Middle East?

Iraq

Lebanon

The presence of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Beijing two weeks ago does not bode well for global security. The strategic Chinese-Iranian partnership simultaneously props up the world’s leading state sponsor of terror while also providing Beijing the foothold in the Near East necessary for its <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/sep/10/how-china-disrupts-the-middle-east/">neocolonialist</a> Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project to succeed.
Unsurprisingly, the meeting between Zarif and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, further strengthened the two nations’ economic ties. Yi <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/05/chinas-great-game-in-iran/">pledged</a> to invest $280 billion in Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors. U.S. sanctions had targeted these specific sectors in late 2018 to hinder the rogue state’s arsenal development. While the Iranian regime has faced mounting pressure, as other countries have halted economic support, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/49313/hammer-inter-agency-fight-white-house-closes-door-josh-hammer">Beijing has become Iran’s top oil customer</a> and trading partner — making up for <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Iranian-Oil-Weapon.html">50% – 70%</a> of the state’s oil exports.
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) support for the terror-supporting Iranian regime is not new. For over two decades, China has enabled Tehran’s weapons development.
Beginning in the 1980s, China served as Iran’s most active supplier of advanced weapons, <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/are-chinese-arms-about-flood-iran-14887">including</a> fighter jet and anti-ship missile technology. China provided small arms, as well as tactical ballistic missiles, to the Islamic Republic during the Iraq War years. The PRC also contributed design plans and infrastructure mechanisms, modernizing Iran&#8217;s military-industrial sector. <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/1996/09/12/chinese-assistance-to-iran-s-weapons-of-mass-destruction-and-missile-programs-pub-129">Testimony</a> before the House International Relations Committee in 1996 highlighted China’s role in assisting Iran’s arsenal. The testimony alluded to the transfer of missile guidance systems, computerized machine tools, and chemical plant infrastructure plans. It is probable that, without China’s vital support, the Iranian regime might not have survived the onslaught of financial problems the Iraq War eventually helped produce.
Distressingly, the strongest component to the Islamic Republic of Iran and the PRC&#8217;s partnership is their shared opposition to American hegemony.
For decades, Beijing has engaged in economic warfare against the United States in the form of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-prosecutors-probe-huawei-on-new-allegations-of-technology-theft-11567102622">intellectual property theft</a> and unfair trade practices. Huawei, China’s leading telecommunications company, has been accused of and investigated on multiple counts of theft and trade violations. Last year, Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou was even arrested on allegations of violating U.S. trade sanctions against Iran.
The PRC’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and <a href="https://dailycaller.com/2018/06/30/china-targets-africa-with-debt-trap-diplomacy-and-military-expansion/">takeover</a> of strategic ports in Africa under the guise of the BRI is reflective of the Chinese Communist Party&#8217;s hegemonic ambitions. The U.S. patrols that routinely counter China’s sovereignty claims over the South China Sea are often aggressively intercepted by Chinese People&#8217;s Liberation Army aircraft and vessels. China’s militarization of this body of water is just one of many predatory strategies the Chinese Communist Party uses to further its global ambitions.
At the core of PRC President Xi Jinping’s BRI project, furthermore, is his utilization of &#8220;debt-trap diplomacy.&#8221; Under &#8220;debt-trap diplomacy,&#8221; Beijing provides business loans to countries and when those countries become unable to reimburse the loans, Beijing moves in and demands control of critical bases, ports, or strategic resources, depending on the underlying location.
The recent agreement between Zarif and Yi pulls Iran into this equation. Beijing is able to extract key natural resources and gain a foothold in the Near East while remaining utterly disinterested in Iran’s menacing internal behavior. Historically, China has been unwilling to cooperate with international efforts to hamper Tehran’s dangerous capabilities and ambitions. Without the critical economic and technological aid China provides, Tehran’s security would cripple.
China’s economic, military, and &#8220;diplomatic&#8221; foothold in the Middle East is truly ominous. Xi Jinping’s decision to dismiss U.S. sanctions against Iran proves China is willing to interrupt the global economic order to advance its own interests. If the international community does not step up and effectively counter the PRC’s harboring of Iran, the world could bear witness to a new and dangerous nuclear powerhouse.
Maya Carlin is an M.A. candidate in Counter-Terrorism and Homeland Security at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government in Israel. She is also the associate producer at the Center for Security Policy, located in Washington D.C.

China

CARLIN: China Exploits The International System To Advance Its Own Interests

The world is witnessing a steady escalation in tensions playing out in the Persian Gulf. Regional experts are debating the drivers behind this conflict and the prospects of future lethal entanglements. Many on the Left blame Trump&#8217;s National Security Advisor, John Bolton, and his &#8220;war-monger&#8221; tactics, as the root of rising tensions. In the past two weeks, mainstream media outlets have attempted to disconnect Bolton&#8217;s hardline anti-Iran policy recommendations from those of the president. This tactic to disassociate Bolton&#8217;s views from the president&#8217;s views is clearly meant to undermine the administration&#8217;s Iran policy.
Those who are blaming Bolton as the sole arbiter for rising tensions are actually emulating the rationale behind the Iranian leadership. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has recently coined the &#8220;B&#8221;-team narrative, which refers to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince bin Zayed, Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman, and U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton. Zarif&#8217;s strategy to shift the world&#8217;s attention off Iran&#8217;s own aggressive actions and onto John Bolton is simultaneously sly and obvious. However, many on the Left are employing this exact strategy. During an interview with MSNBC, Bernie Sanders <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/05/14/bernie_sanders_john_bolton_wants_to_lie_us_into_war_in_iran_like_he_did_in_iraq_lie_they_did_in_vietnam.html#!">stated</a>, &#8220;The architect of the effort right now to get us into war in Iran was the architect to getting us into war in Iraq. That is John Bolton. I worry about provocations on the part of the U.S. against Iran.&#8221; This declaration followed <a href="https://www.apnews.com/84596affc9154ed79ea1399d681e38c9">reports</a> in which State Department officials confirmed threats in the region were in fact credible and based on intelligence that Iranian-backed militias were pursuing aggressive actions against the U.S. throughout the broader region. This tactic of ignoring Iranian belligerence and pointing the finger at Bolton instead is a common trend among the American Left today.
The fact that some Democrats are in agreement with the ayatollahs should be cause for alarm, but apparently supporting any Trump policy is more detrimental than echoing the words of one of the world&#8217;s most radical authoritarian dictators.
In late April, Zarif discussed a wide range of topics on the <a href="https://asiasociety.org/new-york/events/iran-minister-foreign-affairs-mohammad-javad-zarif-invitation-only">Asia Society&#8217;s stage</a> in New York. Throughout the question and answer component of this panel, Zarif targeted the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, labeling these countries as &#8220;clients&#8221; of the United States. He warned that &#8220;accidents &#8212; plotted accidents &#8212; are possible.&#8221;
Three weeks later, four oil vessels were attacked off the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Two of the tankers were owned by Saudi Arabia and one was owned by the UAE. These attacks occurred outside the Strait of Hormuz, a critical and strategic waterway. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-iran-oil-strait/factbox-strait-of-hormuz-the-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-idUSL5N2254EM">almost a fifth</a> of the world&#8217;s oil consumption passes through the Strait. The port of Fujairah itself is home to the exit point of the Adcop pipeline, which allows Saudi Arabia to bypass the strait and export its oil directly to the Arabian Sea.
In sabotaging these vessels, Iran was demonstrating to the U.S. that the regime is, in fact, capable of interrupting the flow of oil and upsetting the global economic market. To suggest that this is a politicized ploy created by Bolton to further escalate tensions is truly absurd, and only strengthens Ayatollah Khameini&#8217;s anti-American agenda.
Yes, Bolton does emphasize a tough line to Iran. However, the regime&#8217;s recent acts of belligerence, as well as overt and covert support of groups acting against U.S. interests, must be countered with strong rhetoric at the least. Democrats who aim to undermine the Trump administration&#8217;s efforts on this front are enabling Iran&#8217;s ruthless regime ambitions.

Maya Carlin is an M.A. candidate in Counter-Terrorism and Homeland Security at IDC Herzliya&#8217;s Lauder School of Government in Israel. She is also the Associate Producer at the Center for Security Policy, located in Washington D.C.

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Maya Carlin

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