Blue America is best for families. For years, America’s elites have insisted that blue states — with their higher incomes, better-educated residents, and expansive public services — are the best places to raise a family. Progressive policies such as paid family leave, childcare subsidies, and gender-neutral bathroom mandates, we were told, would draw parents in droves. Such policies prove “that one major party cares about children and families, and the other does not,” according to liberal journalist Catherine Rampell.

But the data tell a different tale. Across the country, families are packing up and leaving blue states for red states. They are also more likely to have children in red states to begin with.

The 2026 Family Structure Index, just released by the Center for Christian Virtue and the Institute for Family Studies, tracks family health across all 50 states. It focuses on three measures: marriage rates, fertility rates, and the share of children raised by married parents. These factors shape everything from child poverty to the health of the American Dream.

What it reveals is a growing divide in where families are choosing to live — and where they are choosing to start a family.

Call it the Great American Family Sort.

Married couples with children are increasingly moving to red and purple states. From 2019 to 2024, 840,000 married families with children moved from blue states to red ones, while 470,000 moved in the opposite direction — a net gain of 370,000 such families for red states.

Red states also enjoy higher fertility rates, all of which helps explain why red states have seen a 7.3% increase in their child population since 2000, while blue states have seen a 7.1% decline. That shift is another indicator that Red America is proving more hospitable to family life.

In other words, blue states long seen as the best places to raise children by liberal elites — states like California, Massachusetts, and New York — are steadily losing them.

Why? Start with what families actually need: jobs, homes, and safe neighborhoods. On each of these fronts, many red states are delivering. Over the past decade, states like Texas, Florida, and South Carolina have seen strong job growth, especially in sectors that support middle-class life. When young adults can find steady, well-paying work, they are more likely to marry and start families.

Housing is just as critical. Affordable single-family homes provide the space and stability families want. Yet in many blue states, especially on the coasts, restrictive zoning and high costs have pushed homeownership out of reach for young families. In much of red America, that dream remains attainable.

Taxes also shape family migration. Lower tax burdens in many red states leave families with more room in their budgets, whether for childcare, a good private school, or saving for the future.

San Francisco, CA, USA - August 17, 2020. Image of a moving truck parked in San Francisco's Nob Hill neighborhood.

James Rice. Getty Images.

Safety matters as well. Parents want to raise children in communities where they feel secure. States and cities that keep crime and public disorder low have a clear advantage in attracting and retaining families, even as many blue states are “plagued by homelessness, crime and dysfunction,” all of which are turnoffs to families, as even the liberal columnist Nick Kristof has admitted.

Still, economics alone does not explain what is happening. Family culture also matters. In many red states, there remains a stronger expectation around marriage and family formation, often stemming from deeply held religious beliefs. Social norms shaped by churches, civic life, and local leadership still influence how people live. Faith remains a powerful driver of American family life.

The Family Structure Index underscores this point. Frequent religious attendance accounts for 57% of the variance in fertility rates across states. States with high religious attendance, such as Utah and Mississippi, have far higher birth rates than states like Vermont or Massachusetts, where churchgoing is rare.

None of this suggests that red states have solved every problem. Marriage and fertility are down nationwide, and no region is immune. But the trend is clear: families seem more likely to thrive in some states rather than others. That should tell policymakers something important. If states want to attract and keep families, the formula is straightforward: make housing attainable, foster job growth, keep communities safe, and support a culture that encourages marriage and child-rearing.

The deeper lesson is harder to accept. For too long, liberal elites have assumed that higher incomes and more government spending automatically lead to better outcomes for families. The evidence suggests otherwise. Public safety, good jobs, affordable homes, and culture matter just as much, if not more.

The Great American Family Sort is more than a demographic shift. It is a signal. Families are making their priorities clear through where they choose to live and have children. The question is whether the rest of the country is paying attention.

* * *

Aaron Baer is president of the Center for Christian Virtue.

Brad Wilcox is Distinguished University Professor of Sociology at the University of Virginia and senior fellow at the Institute for Family Studies.

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Turns Out Families Are Voting With Their Feet And Headed In One Direction