A new New Hampshire primary poll points to an early shake-up in the 2028 presidential race, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leading the Democratic field while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains ground on Vice President JD Vance among Republicans.
The Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows the Democratic socialist leading the hypothetical Democratic field with 22% support, narrowly ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 21%. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) placed third with 9%.
Notably, the quarterly survey showed support slipping sharply for several other potential Democratic contenders, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris. Newsom’s support in the Granite State fell from 15% in February to just 8% in July. Harris, the failed 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, also saw her support cut in half, falling from 10% in February to 5% in July.
“Nearly half of socialists and one-third of progressives support Ocasio-Cortez, while pluralities of liberals and moderates support Buttigieg,” the polling report said.
New Hampshire poll of Republican primary voters on 2028 has shifted a lot since February, when it was 53% JD Vance to 7% Marco Rubio.
It is now 36% JD Vance to 26% Marco Rubio. pic.twitter.com/kuYmt317j4
— Brent Scher (@BrentScher) July 22, 2026
New Hampshire remains one of the nation’s most closely watched political battlegrounds, with its early primary serving as a crucial measure of presidential candidates’ viability on the national stage.
On the Republican side, the poll showed support for Vice President Vance slipping significantly. About 36% of likely GOP primary voters backed Vance, down sharply from 53% in February. Rubio appeared to capitalize on the shift, more than tripling his support from 7% to 26%.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tied for third place at 8%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished fifth with 6%, followed by former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard with 4%.
Despite his decline, Vance enjoyed the highest favorability rating among New Hampshire Republican primary voters. The survey found GOP voters overwhelmingly want the party’s next nominee to build on President Donald Trump’s agenda, while only 28% said they preferred a candidate who would take the party in a different direction.
Neither Vance nor Rubio has publicly announced a presidential campaign. Still, Trump’s endorsement could prove decisive. More than 40% of Republican primary voters surveyed said his backing would significantly influence their vote.
.png)
.png)
