As the gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump narrows in the polls, it’s important to look at where Trump stands among key demographics in the polls headed into Election Day.
The breakdown doesn’t look overly promising for Trump.
Bloomberg’s Poll Decoder has Clinton leading Trump among a number of key demographics, most notably:
- White college graduates: Clinton +12.3.
- Women: Clinton +12.3.
- Blacks: Clinton +76.8.
- Hispanic: Clinton +38.7.
The fact that Clinton is leading among white college graduates is a particularly troubling sign for Trump since he would be “the first Republican presidential nominee since the dawn of modern exit polling in 1956 to lose among white voters with a college degree,” according to Bloomberg–and Clinton’s lead among the demographic has actually increased since the news about the FBI reopening her email investigation broke.
Another bad sign for Trump: he’s losing college-educated white women to Clinton by a whopping 27 points, a constituency Mitt Romney won by six points in 2012. This is an important constituency because “they habitually turn out to vote at higher rates than almost every other group of voters,” according to the Washington Post. In fact, the Post notes that if Trump were at the same standing as Romney in 2012 among this demographic, “he would likely win the election.”
None of this to suggest that Trump is necessarily doomed on Election Day, but it does show that despite the tightening of the polls, Trump is still facing an uphill battle demographically.
For more details on the general election polls, check out the Daily Wire‘s James Barrett‘s piece here.