Expert statistician Nate Silver’s 538.com now shows Hillary Clinton with a five-point bulge over Donald Trump nationally: 48.4%-43.3%. Silver gives Clinton a 78.7% chance of winning the presidency; Trump is estimated to have a 21.3% chance. Silver currently estimates Clinton to win approximately 323 electoral votes, while Trump would win 214. Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the popular vote; Trump a 16% chance.
Silver notes: “Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state.” Silver estimates Clinton’s leads in the following states this way:
Colorado: 5.5
Florida: 2.5
Iowa: 0.2
Michigan: 7.0
Minnesota: 6.7
Nevada: 2.7
New Hampshire: 5.9
North Carolina: 1.7
Ohio: 0.8
Pennsylvania: 5.7
Virginia: 7.3
Wisconsin: 6.6
Trump leads in two states:
Arizona: 0.8
Georgia: 4.0
Silver also estimates each state’s potential of tipping the election: Florida is at the top, with a 17.4% chance of tipping it, followed by Pennsylvania (11.4%), Ohio (9.2%) Michigan (8.4%) North Carolina (7.7%) and Wisconsin (6.7%).
