News and Commentary

Nate Silver: Clinton Up 5, 79% Chance Of Winning Presidency

Expert statistician Nate Silver’s now shows Hillary Clinton with a five-point bulge over Donald Trump nationally: 48.4%-43.3%. Silver gives Clinton a 78.7% chance of winning the presidency; Trump is estimated to have a 21.3% chance. Silver currently estimates Clinton to win approximately 323 electoral votes, while Trump would win 214. Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the popular vote; Trump a 16% chance.

Silver notes: “Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state.” Silver estimates Clinton’s leads in the following states this way:

Colorado: 5.5

Florida: 2.5

Iowa: 0.2

Michigan: 7.0

Minnesota: 6.7

Nevada: 2.7

New Hampshire: 5.9

North Carolina: 1.7

Ohio: 0.8

Pennsylvania: 5.7

Virginia: 7.3

Wisconsin: 6.6

Trump leads in two states:

Arizona: 0.8

Georgia: 4.0

Silver also estimates each state’s potential of tipping the election: Florida is at the top, with a 17.4% chance of tipping it, followed by Pennsylvania (11.4%), Ohio (9.2%) Michigan (8.4%) North Carolina (7.7%) and Wisconsin (6.7%).