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Latest Polls: Clinton Ahead, Trump Treading Water

By  Frank

Considering all the media attention it was given, FBI Director James Comey’s letter to members of Congress stating that the bureau was considering new evidence in the Clinton email probe seems to have done remarkably little to the Democratic presidential nominee’s poll numbers.

Clinton did take a hit in surveys in which only she and Donald Trump were considered, but according to the RealClearPolitics polling graph, the former Secretary of State’s numbers only dipped for a few days (October 30 – November 4), before they began to bounce back.

Four of the five latest polls that include third party candidates Johnson and Stein have Clinton ahead of Trump by between one and five percent.

A McClatchy-Marist poll surveying 940 likely voters between November 1 – 3 shows Clinton just one point ahead of Trump in a four-way race (44% – 43%).

According to a Fox News poll surveying 1,107 likely voters between November 1 – 3, Hillary Clinton is two points ahead of Donald Trump (45% – 43%) in a four-way race.

It keeps getting better for the Democratic nominee. An ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll surveying 1,685 likely voters between November 1 – 4 has Clinton a stunning five points ahead of Trump in a four-way race (48% – 43%):

The number in the above image from ABC News/Washington Post should read 48%, not 47%.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll surveying 1,282 Likely voters between November 3 – 5 has Clinton ahead of Trump by four points in a four-way race (44% – 40%).

However, there is an outlier that favors Donald Trump. The IBT/TIPP tracking poll surveying 903 likely voters between November 2 – 5 has Trump narrowly beating Clinton by one point in a four-way race (44%-43%):

All told, Clinton has a +2.2% lead on Trump, and over the last seven days, the RealClearPolitics trend lines look remarkably static:

It’s important to note the dates on which the polls were taken. The polls that included November 4th and 5th in their survey (aside from the IBD/TIPP outlier) were much more favorable to Clinton, showing possible momentum. Add that to FBI Director Comey’s announcement Sunday that the bureau stands by its original decision regarding Clinton, the former Secretary of State is likely to stay in position, or even gain points on Trump in the final 38 hours before Election Day commences.

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