News and Commentary

Fivethirtyeight Shows Clinton Leading By 5.3

Nate Silver’s just released its latest estimate of the presidential election if the major party candidates are Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and the polls show Clinton with a 5.3% lead, 42.5% to 37.2%.

Silver’s group explains that their model is “mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.”

The website adds, “We’ve collected 344 national polls so far. The model weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted, and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. The model then adjusts each poll based on other factors.”

Of the 344 polls taken since last November, only 10 showed Trump leading; the only poll recently in which Trump led was the Rasmussen poll of June 28-29, which, when adjusted, gave Trump a one-point lead. The last poll before that in which Trump led came in a May 14-17 Fox News poll in which Trump again had a one-point lead. Before that, a March Ipsos poll gave gave him an adjusted lead of four points.

Clinton has dominated the polls; numerous polls show her with an adjusted lead in double digits.

That may change now that the FBI has essentially washed its hands of a Clinton investigation.