News and Commentary

Democrats’ Generic Ballot Lead Shrinks AGAIN. November Now A ‘Dead Heat.’

Over the past week, the Democrats’ lead on the generic November midterm ballot has sunk an additional point, leaving the two parties in a “dead heat” among likely voters.

After opening a huge lead in early 2018, just before the Republican tax cuts took full effect, Democrats are now leading Republicans by a mere 3.9 points, well within any poll’s margin of error. That’s down from an average lead of 6 points earlier in the summer.

The issue for Democrats, as Hot Air points out, could be that Congress has been mighty quiet for weeks, as members return to their home districts to campaign for November. The economy has been chugging along nicely, and aside from some entertainment news-style blips, President Donald Trump has largely avoided any major negative news cycles — a welcome break from the last year and a half of his presidency.

Trump even reached a peak job approval rating this week — 50% — albeit through Rassmussen, which is frequently an overly optimistic poll for Republicans.

The honeymoon isn’t likely to last. As Congress returns in September from its holiday, it will enter into one of the most contentious events of this presidency: confirmation hearings for Trump’s second Supreme Court Justice. Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face a tough Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, even if Republicans already possess the requisite 51 votes to confirm him to the bench.

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