A Gravis Marketing poll surveying 822 likely Missouri voters and conducted on May 16 has Republican Senate candidates Austin Petersen and Josh Hawley ahead of Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill by impressive margins – but the poll has Petersen in the lead.
Here are the important numbers:
When asked: “If the General election for Senate were held today, and the candidates were Republican Josh Hawley and Democrat Claire McCaskill, who would you vote for?” 50% of respondents chose Hawley, while 43% chose McCaskill. 7% were “undecided.”
When asked: “If the general election for Senate were held today, and the candidates were Republican Austin Petersen and Democrat Claire McCaskill, who would you vote for?” 56% of respondents chose Petersen, while 40% chose McCaskill. 4% were “undecided.”
Things get interesting for Petersen when the scores are broken down by political affiliation:
- Petersen: 84.5%, McCaskill: 12.8%, Undecided: 2.7%
- Hawley: 72.1%, McCaskill: 21.5%, Undecided: 6.4%
- Petersen: 57.8%, McCaskill: 33.6%, Undecided: 8.6%
- Hawley: 57.5%, McCaskill: 31.3%, Undecided: 11.2%
- Petersen: 25.5%, McCaskill: 72.7%, Undecided: 1.8%
- Hawley: 20.2%, McCaskill: 74%, Undecided: 5.7%
By age, the differences become even more stark:
18 – 29-YEARS
- Petersen: 70.1%, McCaskill: 29.3%, Undecided: 0.7%
- Hawley: 40.6%, McCaskill: 41.8%, Undecided: 17.6%
30 – 44 YEARS
- Petersen: 61.3%, McCaskill: 37.3%, Undecided: 1.4%
- Hawley: 57.7%, McCaskill: 41%, Undecided: 1.4%
45 – 54 YEARS
- Petersen: 63.4%, McCaskill: 33.8%, Undecided: 2.8%
- Hawley: 56.9%, McCaskill: 33.8%, Undecided: 9.2%
55 – 64 YEARS
- Petersen: 39.7%, McCaskill: 51.2%, Undecided: 9.2%
- Hawley: 41.5%, McCaskill: 52%, Undecided: 6.5%
65 + YEARS
- Petersen: 46.2%, McCaskill: 47.7%, Undecided: 6.1%
- Hawley: 47.9%, McCaskill: 47.4%, Undecided: 4.7%
By gender, Petersen also holds an advantage over Hawley:
- Petersen: 54.9%, McCaskill: 40.9%, Undecided: 4.2%
- Hawley: 49.3%, McCaskill: 41%, Undecided: 9.6%
- Petersen: 57.6%, McCaskill: 38.8%, Undecided: 3.6%
- Hawley: 50%, McCaskill: 44.7%, Undecided: 5.4%
By race, Petersen is competitive:
- Petersen: 51.6%, McCaskill: 46.2%, Undecided: 2.1%
- Hawley: 53.1%, McCaskill: 44.8%, Undecided: 2.2%
- Petersen: 82.7%, McCaskill: 17.3%, Undecided: 0%
- Hawley: 82.7%, McCaskill: 17.3%, Undecided: 0%
- Petersen: 65.2%, McCaskill: 23.1%, Undecided: 11.7%
- Hawley: 59.4%, McCaskill: 23.7%, Undecided: 16.9%
- Petersen: 56.1%, McCaskill: 40%, Undecided: 3.9%
- Hawley: 47.5%, McCaskill: 44.3%, Undecided: 8.3%
- Petersen: 72.9%, McCaskill: 19.8%, Undecided: 7.3%
- Hawley: 78.6%, McCaskill: 19.9%, Undecided: 1.5%
Out of fifteen categories, Petersen beats Hawley in ten, and ties in one. In every single category but three, both Petersen and Hawley beat McCaskill. Overall, Petersen beats McCaskill by 16%, while Hawley beats the incumbent by 7%.
The Daily Wire spoke with Petersen about the poll results.
DW: What do these numbers mean to you?
PETERSEN: I am the best candidate to beat Claire McCaskill.
DW: Do you have anything to say as the Missouri primary between yourself and Josh Hawley quickly approaches?
PETERSEN: The numbers don’t lie. We outperform McCaskill in key demographics that the Republican Party has been desperately trying to court. We perform better with women, and we perform better with young people.
With women, it’s by 19 points. This destroys identity politics. If we want more women and young people to be in the Republican Party, then my campaign is on to something. We don’t know exactly why, but when you see those kinds of massive leads in certain demographics, that is deliberate, especially when you look at Josh Hawley. He was nearly even with Claire McCaskill among ages 18-29.
We are 40 points over McCaskill with young people; 19 points with women. We also perform 21 points better against McCaskill among Republicans. We’re not sure, but it could be one of two things – either my name ID, or Hawley has damaged himself with Republicans.
This is, of course, one poll. Additionally, the primary is just under three months out, and in politics, such a length of time is long enough for things to change dramatically. However, if the numbers from this poll prove to be accurate, Josh Hawley should take notice. Austin Petersen isn’t the dark horse anymore.
The Republican primary for Missouri’s seat in the United States Senate is on August 7.