Jeb Bush was once the crown prince of the Republican National Committee. Today, Jeb! has lost his luster. The prospect of a Republican nomination looks grim for the Bush camp, even as savvy political operatives squint for some vision of redemption. Bush’s donors are incredibly anxious. Many have even redirected their dollars to other opportune candidates. Nonetheless, Bush still demands a war chest of funds, ready to be weaponized for a perilous and protracted primary fight.
Bush’s poll numbers, however, are still worrying many big-donors behind closed doors. “Jeb Bush’s support has been sliced in half from July to September and now stands at 7% as a variety of potential voters turned to other candidates,” according to The Wall Street Journal. He is right behind Senators Rubio and Cruz, who are tied for third. While Carly Fiorina has been slipping lately in the polls, Ben Carson and Donald Trump are holding on to firm leads. Trump still leads every poll in the nation.
Bush’s problem is that he is the establishment; he is the son of one president and the brother of another. The Bush family is a pillar of Washingtonian politics.
"Mr. Bush lost support across the board: among men and women, voters under and over 50 years of age, talk-radio listeners, and values and tea-party voters alike."
The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal reports, “Mr. Bush lost support across the board: among men and women, voters under and over 50 years of age, talk-radio listeners, and values and tea-party voters alike. Though his support flagged among likely voters who identified as very conservative and total conservatives, Mr. Bush lost the most ground – a 15-point decline — among self-described moderate and liberals, earning 8% from those voters in September compared with 23% in July.”
In contrast, Trump’s base of support is growing exponentially; his base consists of an wide assortment of constituent parts --all unavailable to the Bush candidacy. Ben Shapiro notes:
[Trump] does extraordinarily well among less educated voters – 46 percent for those with a high school degree. White men without a college degree, the poll observes “are among his strongest groups in voter preference and on issues and attributes alike.” He has heavy rural support. And polls show Trump consistently winning a shockingly high proportion of black voters, well in excess of 20 percent, based in part on his hard stand on immigration.
Jeb’s plunging poll numbers presage a collapse of the Bush dynasty.