Even Breitbart News — or as it's come to be called, "Trumpbart" — is admitting that after Ted Cruz's blowout win in Wisconsin, the math looks bad for the outlet's preferred candidate.
In a piece titled "Fallout: Donald Trump Will Fall 50-100 Delegates Short of 1,237 Needed to Clinch Nomination," Mike Flynn and Michael Patrick Leahy predict that the race will come down to the convention.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.
Cruz's big win in Wisconsin Tuesday is even more significant when coupled with his surge in national polls. In Reuters rolling average poll this week, Cruz knocked Trump from the lead nationally among Republican primary voters for the first time. Cruz's momentum makes Trump's chances of winning 58.9 percent of the remaining delegates even less likely.