UH-OH: Democrats Up By 11% In Generic Midterm Poll

According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 8-11 in which there were 1,144 respondents, of whom 991 were registered voters, Congressional Democrats have an 11-point edge going into the midterm elections.

The poll posed the following question: "If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate)?"

53% of registered voters said they would vote for a Democrat, while 42% said they would vote for a Republican.

While Democrats and Republicans who were surveyed held the party line, independents leaned heavily toward Democratic candidates, with 52% saying they would vote for a Democrat, and only 38% saying they would vote for a Republican.

Another significant difference is found between independent men and women. While independent men break toward Republican candidates (46% to 43%), independent women side firmly with Democratic candidates (62% to 29%).

According to RealClearPolitics, in the last two weeks of September, polls put Congressional Democrats up an average of 6.5% over Republicans. This average was across 18 polls, some of which ended after the beginning of October. Setting aside Rasmussen, which was the only poll to feature a tie, making it an outlier, the Democrats were up by 6.9%.

Two weeks into October, the Democrats are up 7.5%. This average was across ten polls, some of which began prior to the start of the month. Once again setting aside Rasmussen, the Democrats are up by 8.3%.

If this trajectory holds, the Democrats may be able to flip the House of Representatives.


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