Politico/Morning Consult Poll: GOP Pulls Ahead On Generic Congressional Ballot

The first time since April 2017

According to a new Politico/Morning Consult poll, those hopes Democrats had for taking over the House of Representatives in 2018 are evaporating, and fast.

For the first time since April 2017, Republicans are leading the Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. 39% of registered voters said they would support their local GOP candidate, while 38% said they would back the Democratic candidate. That 1% lead follows the poll showing Democrats leading between two and ten points for the last three months.

The polarization of America continues unabated; 85% of Democratic voters favor their own party’s candidate, with only 5% willing to vote for a Republican, while 84% of Republicans said they favor a GOP candidate, with 8% willing to support a Democrat. Independent voters barely favor Democrats, 26%-25%.

The swing toward the GOP was also reflected in the comparative popularity of each party’s leader in Congress. Speaker Raul Ryan was viewed favorably by 36% of voters; House Minority leader Nancy Pelosi was only viewed favorably by 28% of voters.

In addition, President Trump has surged to break-even territory. 47% of voters approve of his job performance, while 47% disapprove. 82% of GOP voters approve of Trump; only 16% of Democrats do.

Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer, opined, “Not only have Republicans increased support on the generic congressional ballot, they are now trusted more to handle the most important issue when voters head to the polls: the economy. In mid-December, 39% of voters said they trusted Democrats more to handle the economy, compared to 38% who said Republicans. Today, 43% say Republicans and 32% say Democrats."

Congressional Republicans led their Democratic counterparts by significant margins on key issues. They led by nine points on handling jobs, six points on immigration issues and a whopping 19 points on national security. Even on the Democrats’ traditional linchpin issue, health care, the Democrats only led by four points.

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