America’s most well-known pollster thinks that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would have won the presidency were it not for FBI Director James Comey’s October letter to Congress, detailing new email-gate evidence found on disgraced Democratic lawmaker and pervert Anthony Weiner’s personal devices. Nate Silver, who runs the “statistical analysis” website FiveThirtyEight, joins a growing chorus of voices from the Left hell-bent on propagating highly-speculative counterfactual claims. As a statistician, Silver knows full well that counterfactuals cannot be proven. By definition, they are grounded in conjecture. Nonetheless, he decided to push the “if not for…Hillary would have won” narrative on Twitter.
"Comey had a large, measurable impact on the race. Harder to say with Russia/Wikileaks because it was drip-drip-drip," Silver stated in a Tweet-storm apparently meant to undermine the results of the presidential election. "I'll put it like this: Clinton would almost certainly be President-elect if the election had been held on Oct. 27 (day before Comey letter).”
Posting graphs and figures, Silver attempted to justify his conclusion with the same “analysis” that failed to predict Donald Trump’s primary season and presidential win.
There's more evidence, too: Late-deciding voters broke strongly against Clinton in swing states, enough to cost her MI/WI/PA. pic.twitter.com/8r801ahDQO— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 11, 2016
In blaming Comey, Silver has taken up a position espoused by failed candidate Hillary Clinton herself.
"There are lots of reasons why an election like this is not successful," Clinton told frustrated multi-million dollar donors shortly after her electoral loss. "Our analysis is that Comey's letter raising doubts that were groundless, baseless, proven to be, stopped our momentum."
Silver’s latest theorizing is likely the statistician’s way of rehabilitating his own standing among news consumers. FiveEightThirty’s reputation has taken a massive beating in recent months after its overconfident analysts provided a series of predictions that were way off the mark.
From Brexit to Trump, Silver and Co. have been blindsided by the success of populist movements around the world.
The polling business isn’t what it used to be anymore.
People simply no longer trust the mainstream media.
From their offices on the coasts, pollsters, pundits, media personalities, journalists, and anchors are clearly out of touch with the American people. They’ve ignored “flyover country,” Middle America for decades because hubris and elitism didn’t allow them to see anything outside of the coastal bubble. If anything, 2016 was a reckoning.