POLL: Trump Gaining
There is actually a new poll that shows some good news for GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, as it shows him gaining on his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.
A Rasmussen poll shows that Clinton only has a three-point lead over Trump, 43 percent to 40 percent. The Libertarian and Green Party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein each pick up eight percent and two percent of the vote, respectively.
"Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82 percent) than Trump does in his (74 percent)," writes Rasmussen. "But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37 percent to 32 percent - among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party."
Demographically, Rasmussen found that Trump leads among men by five points while Clinton has a 12-point lead with women. Clinton destroys Trump with minority voters, as she has a 13-point lead in that demographic, but Trump has a six-point lead among whites.
The survey consisted of 1,000 likely voters from August 9-10 and had a margin of error of three percentage points.
Note of caution: Republicans held onto Rasmussen's polling data in 2012 to convince themselves that Mitt Romney had the advantage over President Barack Obama. That said, there have been some recent national polling data that show a closer race between Trump and Clinton:
As the RealClearPolitics polling averages show, after the disastrous Monmouth poll for Trump the following national polls show him back in single digits against Clinton and that her lead is starting to slip. In fact, Clinton's chances of winning declined in FiveThirtyEight's polling models, by three percentage points and four percentage points in the polls-only and polls-plus forecasts, respectively, putting Clinton's chances at 85 percent and 75 percent in those models, respectively as a result of the Bloomberg polls.
However, the latest state polls are horrific for Trump:
New Hampshire, by PPP: Clinton leads 50% to 37%.— Taniel (@Taniel) August 11, 2016
Past 2 NH polls: HRC +15, HRC +10%. NH a must-win for Trump if he can't get PA/CO/VA.
South Carolina inside the margin of error https://t.co/uPtXXMGFMt— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) August 11, 2016
Clinton is still the clear favorite to win, but time will tell if the polling data holds. A lot can change between now and November.